A very strong El Niño is intensifying in the Pacific and could bring Portugal more than double the normal rainfall during autumn and winter 2026/27. NOAA confirms there is a probability greater than 90% that the phenomenon will reach the very strong category in the coming months, with a weekly anomaly of +1.8 ºC in the Niño 3.4 region and 69% probability of exceeding the intensity of all events recorded since 1950. The peak should occur between late autumn and winter.
However, the relationship between El Niño and precipitation in Portugal is not direct. Weather in the country is conditioned by closer factors, such as the jet stream, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the position of anticyclones and depressions. What an exceptional El Niño episode can do is alter atmospheric circulation on a larger scale and indirectly influence these patterns. Luso Meteo considers that the phenomenon may contribute to a more variable atmosphere, but the more expressive projection of "more than double the normal rainfall" is acknowledged by the source itself as a possibility and not a certainty.
The meteorological entity alerts that the risk of flooding may be exceptional, not so much due to the total rainfall predicted, but due to the concentration of precipitation in intense episodes. A very warm Atlantic Ocean can provide large amounts of humidity, increasing the amount of water available when depressions or frontal systems reach the Iberian Peninsula. Dry periods may alternate with episodes of very intense rainfall in a short space of time, a situation that can saturate soils and make water levels rise rapidly.
Globally, El Niño is already causing significant impacts. In Peru, approximately 1.2 million people are in vulnerable areas, with states of emergency declared in districts subject to flooding, landslides, and water shortages. The forecast for Portugal remains a seasonal projection and not a weather warning, and should be updated over the coming months as the events approach in time.
