The World Meteorological Organization warned that the El Niño phenomenon is firmly established and should intensify further in the coming months, reaching a very strong intensity with a probability close to 100% of lasting until February 2027. The peak of the phenomenon is expected at the end of 2026. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already significantly above average, having reached 1.5 degrees above normal between May and July 2026, rising to two degrees above normal in July, and reaching records of 2.2 to 2.6 degrees above average between late July and mid-August.
The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, warned that the world is in a high-risk situation with extreme weather events, stating that "the planet is entering uncharted waters" and that sea surface temperatures are reaching record levels. Guterres emphasized that this exceptional El Niño event requires exceptional preparation and response, warning of a "race against time" between growing risks and the need to act against climate change.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, characterized by the warming of the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, causing changes in wind patterns, pressure, and precipitation worldwide. Historically, the phenomenon has caused or intensified droughts in the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and brought torrential rains to East Africa. This phenomenon adds to the climate change caused by human activities, exacerbating extreme weather events.
Many climate scientists predict that 2027 could be the warmest year ever recorded, since the heat stored in the ocean during El Niño is released into the atmosphere the following year. The warmest year to date is 2024, following the last El Niño.
