The second half of September in mainland Portugal shows no signs of a shift to a truly autumnal pattern, according to forecasts from Meteored and the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA). Weather models indicate negative precipitation anomalies in the coming weeks, meaning accumulated rainfall below what would be usual at this time of year. Between September 14 and 21, a drier-than-normal week is expected across practically all Portuguese territory.
The North and Central regions are most affected by the lack of rain, with precipitation values that could be 10% to 30% below what is expected for the season. IPMA forecasts that during the week of September 14 to 20, precipitation will be below normal across the mainland, particularly in the North and Central regions, where the difference could reach 10 to 30 millimeters below average. In the remaining territory, including Madeira and parts of the Azores, the negative anomaly should be less pronounced.
Between September 21 and 28, the models leave open the possibility of some precipitation, but continue to show no signal of rainfall above normal. According to Meteored, nearly the entire territory should remain with accumulated totals approximately 10% below average, while a small area in the northwest may have negative anomalies that can reach 30%. In the Azores, the scenario is different, with precipitation values within the average or slightly above. Meteored clarifies that a negative anomaly does not mean a complete absence of rain, but rather that the predicted accumulated totals are below the usual climatological values.
The lack of rain is expected to coincide with above-normal temperatures for September. Meteored forecasts positive anomalies across practically the entire country,
