Brazil's agricultural GDP grew 2.8% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of the year, according to data from IBGE released this Tuesday. The advance was driven by the record production of the 2025/2026 harvest, which is in its final moments, allowing agribusiness to accumulate consecutive record harvests.
However, optimism about recent results contrasts with concerns for the future. Producers across Brazil are closely following clouds in the sky and climate forecasting models, given the outlook for a strong El Niño, a phenomenon marked by the warming of Pacific waters, which began in mid-year, threatening the next grain harvest.
The next harvest is scheduled to begin in mid-September and extend until August 2027. Any potential production shortfall would come at a time of financial crisis in the sector, with tight operating margins, exacerbating problems already faced by farmers.
Brazil also faces structural challenges. The country has the lowest rural insurance coverage in 20 years and storage capacity for only 61.7% of the supers harvest, the lowest level ever recorded, leaving the sector even more vulnerable to the expected climate adversities.
