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Ministry of Finance expects new GDP slowdown in 3rd quarter, but recovery at year-endPhoto by fleglsebastian7 on Pexels
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Ministry of Finance expects new GDP slowdown in 3rd quarter, but recovery at year-end

oglobo8 September 2026 at 08:00

The Ministry of Finance expects a new slowdown in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter, after the decline in the second quarter was stronger than forecast by the economic team. The scenario points to growth of around 2% this year, although the exact figure is still being finalized. The ministry's current official forecast is expansion of 2.3% for GDP in 2026.

The Undersecretary of Macroeconomic Policy at the Ministry of Finance, Rafael Leão, dismisses the possibility that the loss of momentum in activity is evolving into a recession or a credit crisis. The economic policy secretariat needs to revise its macroeconomic projections to support the preparation of the bimonthly revenue and expenditure report, which will be released by the 24th.

Leão assesses that the ongoing slowdown reflects, to a large extent, monetary tightening, which is finally beginning to appear more clearly in the sectors most dependent on interest rates, especially in household consumption and trade.

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