In July, Portugal registered a 3.1% decline in overnight stays by American tourists and 5.9% in those by French tourists, two distinct trends that converge in Greater Lisbon, the region that concentrates most of the pressure. The United States market, although still growing 3.4% in cumulative terms through July, shows a slowdown compared to the high rates of recent years, while the French market extends a downward trajectory that has been observed for several years now, with a cumulative decline of approximately 8% in the same period.
Air capacity emerges as the main constraint identified by the sector. Cristina Siza Vieira, CEO of the Portuguese Hotelaria Association, summarizes the situation by saying that tourists go where there is air capacity. Greater Lisbon is beginning to feel airport capacity limitations, while the North of the country continues to grow in the American market. Air capacity between France and Portugal decreased 6.6% in the summer of 2026, at the same time that it increased for Spain and Greece.
Associations such as AHP, AHRESP, ANAV, and the Portuguese Tourism Confederation consider it premature, for now, to speak of a structural reversal in the American market, although they acknowledge signs of slowdown. In the French case, the outlook is more pessimistic, with AHP pointing to this market's price sensitivity in a context of reduced purchasing power for French households, higher prices in Portugal, and increased competition from destinations such as Spain, North Africa, and Egypt.
The pressure on Greater Lisbon is compounded by the fact that the two markets together represent 17% of non-resident overnight stays in 2025. Cristina Siza Vieira warns that if the American market slows down at the same time as the French market continues to decline, the situation will become more difficult. Nevertheless, other markets such as Canadian, German, Dutch, and Polish continue to grow, and Portuguese tourism remained broadly in expansion in July, with total revenue increasing by 4.9%.
