The markets faced a session of caution on a Wednesday marked by pressure from oil and natural gas prices, in a context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Wall Street closed on Tuesday in negative territory, with the S&P 500 falling 0.58% to 6,773.52 points, the Dow Jones down 1.18% to 52,786.07 points and the Nasdaq losing 0.32% to 26,421.41 points. Europe closed practically stable, with Paris's CAC 40 rising 0.14% and Frankfurt's DAX unchanged, while Lisbon stood out as the most active index on the continent.
Brent crude approached $100 per barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and new Iranian threats related to the Strait of Hormuz. The price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF market rose more than 4%, exceeding 76 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since January 2023. This escalation in energy prices reinforces fears of inflationary pressures in Europe and complicates the scenario for the European Central Bank, which is preparing to raise the deposit facility rate to 2.5% on Thursday.
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, with markets discounting another increase in December and another by mid-2027. Attention will focus on Christine Lagarde's press conference, which could signal openness to a third rate hike this year if energy prices remain elevated. On Friday, investors await US inflation data, which will be decisive for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve, and any upside surprise could strengthen monetary tightening bets in both the US and Europe.
On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin to appeal for a quick end to the war in Ukraine, while twelve countries, including Portugal, confirmed their intention to impose sanctions on Israeli settlements in the West Bank. In retaliation, Israel announced the closure of the British consulate in Jerusalem. In the business sector, Qualcomm rose 3.17% after announcing a partnership with Amazon Web Services for data center infrastructure, and quantum computing companies rallied following US government funding for Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantinuum.
