The European Union's projections on the future of Portuguese pensions end in 2070, not because there is a financial guarantee from Brussels until that date, but simply because the Ageing Report — the report used by the European Commission to assess the consequences of population ageing — has its projection horizon limited to that year. After 2070, there are no European forecasts available, which does not mean that pensions end, but rather that the projection exercise ends.
On August 18, 2026, a 607-page report was presented, coordinated by Professor Jorge Miguel Bravo, prepared by a working group created by the Government to study the sustainability, adequacy and equity of the Social Security system. The document, made available by the Ministry of Labour, identifies a "demographic window" that should close around the mid-2040s, warning that Portugal has limited time to carry out a gradual and planned reform. The European Commission estimates that public spending on pensions could rise from 12.8% of GDP in 2025 to 15.1% in 2045, at which time Portugal would have the third highest share of this spending in the European Union.
The report challenges the interpretation of recent surpluses in the contributory system. According to the methodology proposed by the group, the adjusted combined balance of the contributory system and the Caixa Geral de Aposentações would have been negative by 1,944 million euros in 2025, in contrast to the official surplus of 5,468 million from the contributory system alone. The document also recommends changes to early retirement rules, proposing a single table of actuarial adjustments, and suggests the creation of a public notional defined contribution scheme, which would maintain the public, mandatory and pay-as-you-go system.
The Government has stated that it will not proceed with structural reform during the current legislative term, classifying the document as a technical and independent study. Among the proposals are occupational pension plans with automatic enrollment, savings accounts for young people and mechanisms for using real estate assets in old age. The report emphasizes that the proposals should preserve already granted pensions and vested rights, with no official indication that those far from retirement will be left without a pension.
