The war between the United States, Israel and Iran began on 28 February 2026, becoming one of the largest geopolitical and energy shocks in recent decades. Six months after the conflict began, the impact on the global economy proved significant, but less than markets initially feared, thanks to the energy market's adaptability, the use of reserves and increased production outside the Gulf. The IMF estimates global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, although with an uneven recovery among countries.
Oil remained a key variable in the conflict. In late August and early September, Brent exceeded 90 dollars per barrel and approached 95 dollars following new exchanges of attacks. In the eurozone, inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, with energy playing a determining role. Natural gas and refined product prices, particularly European diesel and aviation fuel, also increased significantly.
The conflict created a difficult dilemma for central banks: war reduces growth but simultaneously increases inflation. In the United States, expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy increased, with 10-year bond yields approaching 4.8%. In Europe, the acceleration of inflation reinforced expectations that the ECB may raise rates again. Sovereign bonds did not function as a defensive asset because the dominant risk shifted from growth to inflation.
Financial markets reacted in different phases, with an initial risk-off movement followed by adaptation. Equities proved surprisingly resilient, with the performance of technology companies and investment in artificial intelligence partially offsetting the pressure from energy costs. The two main scenarios for investors are a de-escalation, with normalization of energy flows, or a new escalation that causes a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, with a much more worrying impact on inflation, interest rates and economic growth.
