The State Budget for 2027 (SB2027) faces significant pressures, according to economists consulted by Jornal Económico. The budgetary margin is constrained by decisions already made and by European budgetary rules, which are more restrictive for Portugal this year. The Minister of Finance, Miranda Sarmento, already has 4.7 billion euros in committed expenditures, with pensions representing 2 billion euros (including increased number of pensioners and average pension, and regular updates) and public sector salary increases representing 1.2 billion euros. These two items, after taxes are deducted, represent about half of the total expected impact on SB2027.
The main constraint on government action is net expenditure, the indicator monitored in Brussels. The rules have become tighter for Portugal, with the difference between the projection by the Council of Public Finances for 2027 (3.9%) and the European Commission's reference value (1.2%) representing a significant deviation. Economist Óscar Afonso, from the University of Porto, warns that any new permanent measure must be analyzed by its structural cost in the following years and by how it will be funded. A former government official contacted by the newspaper confirms that the Government "has no margin at all" for measures with significance in income tax or pensions.
Economists warn that public investment may be the "poor relative" of the budget. Óscar Afonso considers that it is not desirable to improve the balance through underexecution of public investment, recalling that the 2025 surplus was flagged in Brussels for having benefited from capital expenditure lower than initially budgeted. João Borges Assunção, from Católica Lisbon, understands that the risk is the creation of rigid expenditure on pensions and salaries that creates new problems for the future. The central question is still what will happen with the PRR funds, with the Minister of Economy estimating the additional pressure at only 200 million euros.
