Armindo Monteiro alerts to the structural challenges of the Portuguese economy, including chronic dependence on European funds, which according to him creates an illusion of development that masks the lack of endogenous innovation. He argues that the country has become accustomed to consuming what it does not produce and financing the State without creating a robust productive and exporting base, becoming vulnerable to global shocks due to excessive dependence on tourism and external real estate investment.
The article addresses immigration as the main response to the demographic winter, with the foreign resident population exceeding 1.5 million people according to Statistics Portugal. However, Armindo Monteiro identifies three fragilities in this solution: it functions as a "crutch" that masks the chronic inability to add value to work, it creates an illusion of Social Security balance through contributions that increased by 18%, and it represents the substitution of the generational void left by the 30% of young people of fertile age who emigrated.
Regarding Social Security sustainability, the study indicates that the gross replacement rate for a worker with 40 years of contributions will drop from 68.3% in 2025 to 58.0% in 2065. Monteiro considers that the debate on reform must be started without hesitation and advocates for the promotion of complementary pension schemes, a measure that is part of the 2024 Tripartite Agreement and the EU Council Recommendations, but which has not yet been fulfilled.
The interviewee classifies the pension system as "designed for a world that no longer exists" and warns that the so-called reserve fund is "merely a financial palliative for a disease that is demographic". The ratio between active contributors and pensioners is narrowing rapidly, which may force an increase in the retirement age and a reduction in the value of new pensions. Monteiro concludes that Portugal needs higher wages, greater productivity and a philosophy of change with hope to face these structural challenges.
