Goldman Sachs expects diesel refining margins to more than double in the United States and the European Union due to lower fuel exports from the Persian Gulf. The bank expects diesel refining margins in the United States to reach 63 dollars per barrel in 2027, compared to the previous projection of 27 dollars per barrel, and in the European Union to reach 49 dollars per barrel, compared to the previous estimate of 19 dollars per barrel.
The increase in strikes at refineries in the Middle East and Russia has further restricted already overloaded global refining capacity, pushing refined product margins to new levels. Analysts note that refinery shutdowns are currently 60% above the seasonal average, something that should prolong diesel shortages until next year.
Fuel exports from the Persian Gulf are at about 40% of pre-war levels, compared to the previous estimate of between 70% and 80%. Diesel continues to be the epicenter of the rally, according to the note transcribed by Yahoo Finance.
