This week promises to be decisive in global financial markets, with major central banks taking important positions. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in a near-certain decision after inflation remained at 3.4% in August. The Bank of Japan follows the same trend on Friday, with an expected rise to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to 'freeze' rates at 3.75%, with 65 economists polled by Reuters unanimous on this hold. The European Central Bank has already raised rates by 25 basis points last Thursday, in a decision described as "unanimous" and "obvious" by Christine Lagarde.
The State of the European Union speech, delivered by Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday, is expected to address the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, which have been driving oil prices close to 100 dollars. The President of the European Commission will also focus on the bloc's competitiveness, the digital economy, artificial intelligence and climate policy, after a summer marked by extreme heat waves and record-breaking wildfires. The volatile geopolitical environment and the need for investment in defence and security will also be highlighted.
The Portuguese Parliament formally resumes work this Tuesday, after last week's debate on Chega's motion of censure that was rejected. MPs have a range of dossiers on their plates, including the tax on oil company profits, parental leave, the new Court of Auditors law, the Budget Framework Law and exams. The State Budget for 2027 must be presented by the Government by October 10. On Monday, the restaurant group Ibersol presents first-half results, closing the accounts of the 16 listed companies on the PSI.
On Friday, the National Statistics Institute releases mortgage interest rates for August. In July, interest on home loans increased to 3.135%, with the average payment settling at 414 euros. Mortgage lending in Portugal has continued to accelerate, with the loan stock in June rising 10.9% year-on-year, the highest rate since 2003, with the banks' portfolio totalling 116.8 billion euros.
