The President of the United States, Donald Trump, presented during the Republican Convention a proposal to give a 5,000-dollar check (approximately 4,306 euros) to every adult American citizen, if Republicans maintain control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections. The measure, called the "Trump Dividend," has an estimated cost of 1.2 trillion dollars and requires that the money be spent in the United States. Vice President JD Vance suggested that the funds could come from customs tariffs, although the Congressional Budget Office estimated revenues of only 167 billion dollars from tariffs, a figure far below what's needed.
The promise raises questions about its constitutional and financial viability. Under the U.S. Constitution, public spending requires Congressional approval, meaning Trump could not issue the checks by executive order without the action being blocked as unconstitutional. Although Supreme Court jurisprudence ruled in 1982 that campaign promises targeted at the electorate are legal, the measure faces opposition from both Democrats and some Republican figures, who consider it a form of "electoral bribery" or "socialism."
The proposal also divides the Republican Party itself. While some supporters prepare legislation to follow through on the promise, Congressman Chip Roy criticized the promotion of "state dependency" and Marjorie Taylor Greene called the idea "socialism." Democrats oppose the measure as a bloc, considering it poor economic policy. Historically, during the Covid-19 pandemic, Congress approved three rounds of checks, but those payments were phased and excluded high-income families, and were not campaign promises.
Economists warn that a massive injection of over one trillion dollars into family consumption could worsen inflation and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Financing through debt would require the massive issuance of Treasury bonds, which could cause sovereign debt interest rates to soar and increase public financing costs. With U.S. national debt already reaching 40 trillion dollars, the implementation of this measure would represent a significant worsening of the public deficit.
