IMF sees long-term inflation expectations stable despite war in Iran

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that, despite the continuation of the war in Iran, global long-term inflation expectations remain stable. At a press conference, the IMF spokesperson, Julie Kozack, stated that inflation expectations have increased this year, but remain stable in the long term. Julie Kozack recalled that, in July, the IMF revised upward, by three tenths, the forecast for global inflation in 2026, to 4.7%. The organization kept virtually unchanged the projection for underlying inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, and forecast for 2027 an evolution of prices at the global level closer to normality. In its July forecasts, the IMF estimated that, by the end of summer, the intensity of the war in Iran would have decreased substantially or that Washington and Tehran could even have reached a peace agreement. However, Kozack's statements come at a time marked by a new escalation of military confrontations around the Strait of Hormuz, with the price of a barrel of oil already fluctuating around the symbolic mark of 100 dollars. The IMF spokesperson recalled that the current hydrocarbon traffic through the Strait of Hormuz represents only one tenth of that recorded before the war. The Director-General of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the energy crisis not only has not ended but could worsen in the coming months, in a scenario marked by the reduction of strategic oil reserves, the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, and increased energy demand in some countries due to the expansion of artificial intelligence.