Coface, the risk management firm, predicts that copper, nickel and aluminum will face structural shortages until 2035, due to the combination of strong demand generated by the energy transition and electrification, and increasingly limited supply. Coface's metals sector economist, Simon Lacoume, stated that this situation could herald a new cycle of metal price appreciation, exerting lasting pressure on global markets.
Demand for these metals was already sustained by structural trends such as urbanization, infrastructure and the growth of emerging economies. Now added to this is demand generated by the energy transition and digitalization, with renewable energy, electric vehicles, batteries, electrical grids and data centers being particularly metal-intensive. According to the International Energy Agency's scenario, clean technologies could account for 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035.
Supply is proving insufficient, as less than 1% of mineral exploration projects result in an operational mine and developing new capacity can take about 20 years on average. This is compounded by strong geographic concentration of supply chains, with Indonesia accounting for 67% of global nickel ore production and China holding more than half of the refining capacity for various metals. By the end of 2025, there were 1,138 measures in force affecting the import or export of critical minerals, compared to 357 a decade earlier.
Coface projects that copper could face a deficit between 1.5 and 6.5 million tons by 2035, nickel a deficit of approximately 6.5 million tons, and aluminum a deficit between 5 and 15 million tons. Copper and nickel prices are expected to nearly double over the next decade. For manufacturers, Coface concludes, the challenge goes beyond price, making it essential to secure access to critical metals, develop recycling and reduce material intensity.
