BNP Paribas expects two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank in September and December, and also two by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the same months, according to the outlook of the French bank presented on September 10.
For 2027, the bank anticipates a rate hike by the Fed in the first quarter, while the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates in September, December, and March 2027, while the People's Bank of China is expected to keep rates unchanged until year-end.
The bank highlights as central themes the resilience of growth and persistent inflation. Chief economist Luigi Speranza noted that artificial intelligence and spending in the defense sector can represent a boost for the economy. The head of developed markets, Paul Hollingsworth, said that the global economy is better prepared to withstand shocks.
In the credit market, strategist Viktor Hjort indicated that we are no longer in a bull market, due to the so-called "abundance of bonds" on the supply side. Hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle are at the center of this theme, with bond issuances expected to reach 400 billion dollars in 2027, when investment (capex) by these companies is expected to increase to 1.2 trillion dollars.
