Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's advance in the electoral polls released by Quaest was driven by growth among independent voters, who are those who do not identify as Lula supporters, Bolsonaro supporters, left-wing, or right-wing. In this group, Tarcísio rose from 27% to 34%, a gain above the three-point margin of error. Former president Fernando Haddad retreated from 24% to 17% among the same independents.
The poll also revealed that Tarcísio manages to capture 12% of voters who identify as Lula supporters, while Haddad has only 5% of the votes among Bolsonaro supporters, indicating a growth in polarization in the race for the São Paulo state government.
In the first-round scenario for the re-election race to the São Paulo state government, Tarcísio appears with 42% of voting intentions, against Haddad's 27%. The text also mentions that São Paulo has become the epicenter of the presidential dispute, with the movement of conventions, campaign kickoffs, and war rooms.
