Of the five federal deputies who gathered the most votes in São Paulo in the past election, four are out of the race in the 2026 campaign, creating a power vacuum that the right and left dispute. With this dispersion of the electorate, parties on both sides project that the votes of these former leaders will spread among various candidates.
On the left, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), who is currently the minister of the Secretariat-General of the Presidency, exceeded the mark of 1 million votes in the 2022 election and was the highest placed in the state, but is not on the ballot this year. PT members project that part of Boulos's votes should go to party candidates, while another portion would migrate to PSOL candidates, such as Erika Hilton, currently considered the most prominent name of the party.
In the broader political sphere, the PF report cited by Minister Alexandre Moraes indicates that Minister André Mendonça acted with different criteria in cases involving Lulinha and ACM Neto. Moraes also claims that Mendonça wanted to direct investigations to target Davi Alcolumbre, expanding the political dispute beyond the São Paulo elections.
