The Automotive Outlook 2040 study, developed by the Roland Berger consultancy, identifies four major forces that will transform the global automotive industry over the next 15 years: Polarized, Automated, Connected and Electrified (PACE). These trends include the regionalization of markets, artificial intelligence and automation, the growing dominance of software and data, and the progressive electrification of automobiles. According to the study, the shared mobility revolution is not expected to advance at the speed many anticipated, and outside major urban centers, the private car will continue to play a central role.
In terms of electrification, Roland Berger's base scenario points to a 71% share of battery electric vehicles in 2040, rising to 99% in Europe. In North America and China, the rhythms will be different. After 2030, practically all new automobiles should follow the Software-Defined Vehicle concept, built around a software platform capable of receiving new features "over the air" throughout their useful life.
The shift in the geography of the industry could be decisive. China and the Global South will gain weight in volumes and revenues, while Western markets reach the so-called "peak auto" in new vehicle sales. Chinese manufacturers have gained ground rapidly, benefiting from a strong competitive position in cost and technology, while European manufacturers face greater pressure both in China and in their own markets.
Pedro Galhardas, managing partner at Roland Berger in Portugal, was the guest on the ECO Auto podcast to discuss the conclusions of this study. The conversation delved deeper into the trends that may define the next decade and a half of the automotive industry, in an increasingly regionalized world, with new supply chains, new competitors, and growing competition for control of software, data, and technological ecosystems.
