Asian markets opened cautiously this Thursday, in a session marked by the expectation of important macroeconomic data in the United States and Europe. Investors' focus is centered on the official US employment report, to be released on Friday, after Wednesday's data revealed a slowdown in private sector job creation in August. Five American indicators will be known today, including July's Trade Balance, Weekly Jobless Claims, second quarter Productivity revision, S&P Global Services PMI and August ISM Services PMI. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is speaking at an event, with markets already pricing in a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.
Sovereign debt pressure has shifted from the US to Europe, with German and French bonds reaching 2011 highs. Natural gas prices are approaching 73 euros per MWh, the highest level since 2023, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. The European Central Bank meets on September 10, with markets assigning an 80% probability to a 25 basis point hike in the deposit rate, from the current 2.25% to 2.50%. Annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 3.3% in August, while core inflation fell to 2.4%, remaining above the ECB's 2% target. Christine Lagarde has been warning about the risks of second-round effects, when companies and workers pressure each other in inflationary cycles.
Crude continues to trade at elevated levels, with Brent hovering around 94-95 dollars per barrel and WTI in the 89-91 dollar range, accumulating a gain of over 13% in the last month and more than 42% compared to the previous year. The Strait of Ormuz represents a growing concern: 17 million barrels of oil transited there on Monday, the highest volume since the beginning of the war, but only 4 commodity ships crossed on Tuesday, against 10 the day before, signaling growing risks to supply. Investors are also awaiting the EIA's weekly crude stocks report, scheduled for release tomorrow.
