The government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva forecasts an effective primary surplus of R$ 18.6 billion in 2027, according to the bill on budget guidelines (PLOA) released by the Ministry of Planning. This would be the first budget proposal in the black since 2015.
The established target is 0.50% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which corresponds to R$ 73.2 billion, with a tolerance margin ranging from 0.25% to 0.75% of GDP. However, the expected result by the government still falls outside this range.
With deductions of R$ 64.7 billion, the projection for the surplus for meta accounting purposes is R$ 83.4 billion. This value considers all expenses, including those deducted for target calculation purposes, such as a portion of court-ordered payments (precatórios).
By considering all expenses, even those usually deducted for target calculation, the value of R$ 18.6 billion represents an effective surplus in public accounts, unlike other projections that exclude certain expenditures.
