Paulo Oliveira's article proposes a transformation in the way the State manages public security in Portugal, moving from a predominantly reactive approach to a preventive one. The author argues that for decades, public response has been organized based on what has already happened - recording incidents, analyzing statistics and identifying trends - but constantly looking at the past is not the best way to anticipate the future. Society has changed and so have the risks: today, protecting people and property goes far beyond preventing thefts or robberies, also encompassing isolated elderly people, tourist areas, fire risks, critical infrastructure, domestic violence and digital threats.
The problem identified is that the State knows many of these realities, but in a fragmented way. The police have information about crime, civil protection knows natural and technological risks, municipalities know the territory, health services identify vulnerabilities and social security monitors fragile populations. The author then proposes the concept of "Proximity Security 2.0", which would involve creating an Integrated Risk Map for People and Property in each Region, municipality or relevant territorial area. This dynamic decision-support tool would cross-reference different territorial indicators - such as crime, accidents, fires, population concentration, social vulnerability, isolation of elderly people and critical infrastructure - allowing the identification of territories where certain conditions increase the likelihood of security problems emerging.
The author emphasizes that anticipating risks does not mean predicting criminals, but rather identifying territorial vulnerabilities. A democracy should not move toward systems that classify citizens as potential criminals based on algorithms. The objective should be to know which zones will become congested during major events, identify locations with high concentrations of vulnerable population, or anticipate operational needs given adverse weather conditions. The proximity of the future should combine three elements: human presence, territorial knowledge and technological intelligence. The biggest challenge will be institutional cooperation, given that Portugal continues to be organized in administrative silos, with each agency having its own competencies, systems and priorities.
As a concrete solution, Paulo Oliveira proposes the creation of Regional Security and Resilience Observatories, which would function as permanent platforms for analysis and cooperation between security forces, civil protection, municipalities, health, social services, universities and other relevant entities. Their mission would be to identify risks, monitor trends, propose preventive measures and evaluate results. The author argues that this approach would allow security policies to be adapted to the reality of each territory, recognizing that a large metropolitan area, a rural region or an island territory face different challenges. Portugal would have the conditions to advance on this path, potentially starting with pilot projects in some regions, defining indicators, testing cooperation models and correcting mistakes.
