Portugal is one of the countries that has the most to gain from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), being one of seven countries where RRP-funded expenditure will have an expansionary impact of more than 0.5% of GDP this year, according to a study by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission. Only Greece surpasses Portugal in this indicator. The Bank of Portugal estimates growth of 1.8% this year and 1.6% next year, but warns that in 2027 activity will slow down due to the slowdown in investment associated with the end of the RRP.
The Public Finance Council corroborates that investment will suffer with the end of the European bazooka, with growth of 4.3% in 2026 slowing to 1.1% the following year. In the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize around 1.6%, reflecting the dissipation of temporary effects and a progressive contraction of public investment after the RRP ends.
In 2021, the Ministry of Finance estimated that the 16.6 billion euros in RRP funds would transform into 23.3 billion euros of positive impact on the economy, meaning each euro of RRP would generate 1.4 euros of impact. After the 2023 reprogramming, the RRP increased to 22.2 billion euros, and according to the European Commission, Portugal was the fifth country in the EU with the highest weight of RRP in GDP in 2026, with a projected impact of between 3% and 3.5% of GDP in a high productivity scenario.
European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis urged Portugal to use the entirety of RRP funds, especially the grants. However, in 2026, the 538 million euros in expenditure that remained unexecuted represent an increased risk for
