When Ursula von der Leyen arrived at the presidency of the European Commission in 2019, the priority was to make the European Union greener. Seven years later, which included a global pandemic, a conflict on Europe's doorstep, and a new trade war, the main concern has become how to prevent the European economy from falling behind. Her second term, probably her last, ends in 2029.
The diagnosis was outlined in the independent reports commissioned by the Commission from two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi. The conclusion was that productivity is stagnant, the internal market remains fragmented, there is an investment deficit, and European companies struggle to gain scale. Draghi's estimate is that the EU needs to mobilize an additional 800 billion euros in investment per year to reverse this trajectory. Only 15.7% of Draghi's 383 recommendations were fully implemented by mid-year.
Von der Leyen's second Commission transformed the reports into the main guides for the new Brussels agenda, presenting strategies in areas ranging from competitiveness, clean industry, and artificial intelligence to defense and economic security. The seven main challenges identified are: competitiveness, industrial policy, capital market fragmentation, energy, dependence on China, defense, and artificial intelligence.
The leader of the European executive has transformed Brussels into a more interventionist economic actor, but doubt remains as to whether European ambition is being matched by execution capacity. Negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework, for 2028-2034, are taking place in parallel with elections in France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, which could further complicate commitments regarding the size and distribution of European resources.
