Euribor rates registered the biggest jump in about six months, renewing highs of about two years, which will pressure families with mortgage credit. The six-month and 12-month Euribor rose 0.116 points and 0.152 points on Monday, respectively, the biggest increase since March 24. This acceleration is due to the increase in tensions in the Middle East, which is pulling energy prices upward.
Oil reached 107 dollars per barrel and natural gas accelerated more than 5% to 2023 highs, after Saudi Arabia closed a major pipeline and Oman postponed a meeting on the Strait of Hormuz. Economist Filipe Garcia, president of IMF, states that "no light is seen at the end of the tunnel" in terms of energy price trends.
Families should prepare for increases in mortgage payments between 25 and 80 euros for contracts revised in October, at a time when they already face higher prices in supermarkets and at the pump. The inflation rate in the Euro Zone advanced to 3.3% in August and the ECB has already raised rates twice since the start of the attacks on Iran.
Markets now anticipate two more 25 basis point increases at the October and December 2026 meetings, raising the deposit rate to 3%. The US Federal Reserve is also expected to raise rates on Wednesday, with probability exceeding 90%, which Filipe Garcia considers indicative of "a complex factual situation."
