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Flav Bolsonaro rises among 'independents' in second-round simulation against Lula; see numbersPhoto by planet_fox on Pexels
Politics
Elections

Flav Bolsonaro rises among 'independents' in second-round simulation against Lula; see numbers

oglobo14 September 2026 at 14:35

Flav Bolsonaro (PL) numerically appears ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) in a second-round simulation, according to a Quaest survey contracted by GLOBO and TV Globo. Jair Bolsonaro's son reached 42% of votes in the overall survey score.

Flav's advantage is mainly driven by independent voters, those who do not classify themselves as left-wing or Lula supporters, nor as right-wing or Bolsonaro supporters. Among this group, the senator has ten points more than Lula.

In the regional breakdown, the Southeast, the most populous region of the country, shows significant evolution. The difference between Flav and Lula went from nine points last week to sixteen points currently.

The survey allows for simulating other breakdowns beyond those presented, offering different views on voting intentions in an eventual second round between the two candidates.

Why this matters

The growth of Flav Bolsonaro among independents may indicate a reconfiguration of the political scenario for 2026, since this group of ideologically unaligned voters tends to define the outcome of close elections. The significant advance in the Southeast region, which concentrates the largest number of voters, suggests that the dispute may become more competitive than previous surveys indicated. WHY: The survey shows that Jair Bolsonaro's son is growing among independent voters, opening a ten-point advantage over Lula in this segment, which may indicate a reconfiguration of the political scenario for future presidential elections. The advance is especially relevant in the Southeast, the most populous region of the country, where the difference between the two candidates jumped from nine to sixteen points.

About this summary

This is our short summary of a report published by oglobo on 14 September 2026 at 14:35; the full text stays with the publisher. In our feed it sits under Politics. We currently carry 29642 items in that section.

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