The new Quaest poll brought an unprecedented scenario in the presidential race, with PL candidate Bolsonaro appearing for the first time numerically ahead of PT President Lula in a runoff simulation. In the poll, Bolsonaro appears with 42% against 40% for Lula. However, the two remain technically tied within the two percentage point margin of error.
CBN commentator and host of the Viva Voz program, Vera Magalhães, analyzed the poll and pointed out a significant loss of ground for President Lula in relation to other candidates. According to her, even when facing candidates considered minor, who do not exceed 7% in first-round voting intentions, Lula appears in a technical tie situation in most runoff simulations.
The only exception identified by Vera Magalhães is with candidate Romeu Zema, with whom Lula would also be technically tied. In simulations with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, President Lula appears numerically ahead, but still in a technical tie situation.
Based on this analysis, Vera Magalhães concluded that the poll data reveals a very large loss of traction in Lula's candidacy, indicating a decline in the current president's popularity across different runoff scenarios.
