Brent's price returned to trading above 100 dollars per barrel in the week of September 9 to 11, three months after last crossing that threshold on May 22. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between the United States and Iran was the main factor behind this rise, with the price reaching 103 dollars on Friday, September 11. Since the start of the conflict on February 28, Brent has already risen more than 33%, although it is still below the peak of 118 dollars reached in March and April. In the week under review, the price even rose to 107 dollars on September 10, with a brief calming when it became known that Iran and Oman planned to meet with Gulf countries to reopen navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
The main events that triggered the rise were Iran's attack on 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz, to which the United States responded by hitting five Iranian oil tankers, and the Houthi takeover of the port of Mokha, in the Red Sea, by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Over the weekend of September 5 and 6, the United States attacked three Iranian ships that were part of a financing network for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and in response Iran attacked ships linked to Americans and three tankers sailing an "unauthorized" route. Iran also threatened to create a "no-go zone" in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas traffic passes, warning that any ship entering that zone will be added to a sanctions list.
The escalation in oil prices is having repercussions on the economy, with inflation in Portugal reaching 3.3% in August, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to July, explained almost entirely by the rise in fuel prices. In the eurozone, inflation rose from 2.9% to 3.3%, the highest value since September 2023, with energy rising 14.3%. The European Central Bank responded by raising interest rates by 25 basis points, with the Bundesbank governor warning that future decisions will be strongly linked to the evolution of energy costs.
Analysts predict that oil prices could reach 120 dollars per barrel if attacks on ships continue to worsen, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank also revised upwards its forecasts for diesel refining margins, expecting these to more than double in the United States and the European Union due to low fuel exports from the Persian Gulf, which are currently at about 40% of pre-war levels. Refinery shutdowns are 60% above the seasonal average, something that should prolong the diesel shortage until next year.
