The European economy resists and an acceleration is expected in the second half of the year, although the risk of an exacerbation of the energy shock is not excluded. The absence of indirect impacts from the energy rise surprises analysts.
The ECB considers that inflation should remain above target for longer than initially anticipated. This perspective supports the expectation that interest rates remain at high levels for a prolonged period.
The absence of significant indirect effects from the increase in energy prices constitutes a surprise for economic policymakers. This situation influences the ECB's forecasts regarding the inflation trajectory in the euro area.
