Oil prices and freight already carry more weight than taxes in setting the diesel price in Portugal, according to data from the Energy Services Regulatory Entity (ERSE). This change occurred with the beginning of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28. In the week of February 16 to 22, the efficient price of diesel was 1.668 euros, with taxes representing 50.8% and prices and freight 30.3%. In the week of August 31 to September 6, the efficient price rose to 2.078 euros, with prices and freight representing 45.7% and taxes 41%. In gasoline, taxes are still the heaviest component, but they fell from 56.8% to 48.5% in the same period.
Analyst at broker XTB, Henrique Tomé, stressed that there was no significant reduction in taxes in absolute terms, but rather a decrease in relative weight, with the fiscal component remaining practically stable at around 0.98 euros per liter. What changed most significantly was the price and freight component, which rose from 26% to 38.1% in gasoline and from 30.3% to 45.7% in diesel. Senior economist at Banco Carregosa, Paulo Monteiro Rosa, confirmed that fiscal neutrality has been maintained and that the price increase mainly reflects the strong appreciation of international prices for refined products and refining margins.
The Middle East conflict has kept oil prices high, with Brent trading above 95 dollars per barrel on Monday, September 7. Attacks on Iranian ships by the United States and Iranian retaliatory attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were reported. Iran admitted it would create a no-go zone in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs projected that oil prices could reach 120 dollars per barrel if attacks on ships continue to escalate.
The Minister of Environment and Energy, Maria da Graça Carvalho, announced that the Government would strengthen ERSE's sanctioning powers throughout the oil system chain, including refining. The government official rejected the idea that the executive would be profiting from the rise in fuel prices, stating that all increases in VAT revenue were used to offset ISP, totaling 700 million euros, and that a discount on ISP of 23 cents per liter is being applied.
