With 18 governors running for reelection in 2026, the first round of Quaest polls in the states indicated more difficulties at the start of the campaign for those who took office earlier this year, after the resignation of the previous holders. Half of the candidates in this situation appear behind in voter intentions compared to their opponents.
The data signal a repeat of the historical trend, with a lower success rate for governors with short terms. Over the past decade, the average reelection rate for governors who completed their four-year term is 74%, with a peak of 94% in 2022.
This rate is higher than the reelection rate for governors with short terms, which averages 51% since 2010. Experts point to a difficulty for leaders, even though it is not specified in the available portion of the article.




