TAP's privatization is expected to advance to a negotiation phase known as "best and final offer" (BAFO), where the Government will invite one or two interested parties to submit an improved final version of their proposals. This modality was already provided for in the process rules, and according to sector sources contacted by Jornal Económico, there is an expectation that the Executive will move to this phase after receiving the evaluation report on the binding proposals.
Sector valuations place TAP's total value between 1.6 billion and two billion euros, meaning the 45% stake up for privatization is around 800 million to one billion euros. The competitors Air France-KLM and Lufthansa will have already completed their "due diligence" processes, thoroughly investigating the accounts of the Portuguese airline.
Miguel Madeira, a researcher at IPPS-ISCTE who is following the process and writing a doctorate on the 2020 nationalization, considers that both proposals should have very similar values, with variations being more at the level of the industrial plan content and the variables required by the tender specifications, such as job creation and wealth retention in the country. Madeira also admits the possibility of a "non-decision," stating that the Government may refuse to sell if no proposal is deemed admissible, as happened in 2013.
The criteria defined by the Government for the privatization include the "immediate cash injection," the quality of the industrial and strategic plan, fleet growth, the development plan for the new Lisbon airport, investment in operations in Porto and remaining airports, sustainable fuels, and maintenance and engineering. An anonymous source considered that interest in TAP is mainly "because of Brazil." Luís Montenegro's executive also left open the possibility of a second privatization phase, which would be subject to an autonomous process.
