Prime Minister Luís Montenegro expressed, before an audience of young people at the PSD's Summer University, the desire for a "national understanding" around Social Security reform, so that everyone would commit to implementing it regardless of electoral results. The experts who analyzed the system for a year and a half also appealed for a broader consensus as the basis for any reform, underscoring that Social Security is a long-term promise that cannot be undone with each electoral cycle.
However, the political scientists consulted by ECO consider that such an agreement is unlikely. Pedro Silveira, professor at the New University of Lisbon, states that an understanding is "more than unlikely in this legislature," while Patrícia Calca, from ISCTE, highlights the existing polarization in Parliament as an obstacle. Paula Espírito Santo, from the University of Lisbon, observes that although the Government shows rhetorical willingness for dialogue, practice is more difficult. The specialist also notes that the Executive is "between a rock and a hard place," as approaching Chega may displease voters and approaching the PS may be interpreted as an intention to maintain the current framework rather than reform it.
The new working group, led by Jorge Bravo, presented in August a report that points to a Social Security deficit of 1.9 billion euros already in 2025. The experts recommend systemic reforms, such as notional defined contribution accounts, and parametric reforms, such as revising penalties for early retirement pensions. However, the PS criticized the study, accusing it of creating an image of unsustainability to justify the transfer of savings to the private sector. Miguel Cabrita, a Socialist MP, considered that the document opens the way to the privatization of important parts of the public system.
The Government itself has already ruled out advancing with a structural reform in this legislature, considering that the process is "closed." The recent experience of the labor legislation reform, which fell after Chega voted it down following demands about the retirement age, serves as a negative precedent. The parties showed little openness and, according to the experts consulted, even more limited measures on complementary savings will be difficult to implement in the near future.
