The Quaest poll released this morning indicates that the 2026 presidential election is more open than ever. President Lula's favoritism as an incumbent candidate has diminished, and proof of this is the new drop in the approval rating, which now stands at 45%, while disapproval remains at 48%.
After reaching his best numbers in July, Lula has been losing momentum since August. The negative balance between approval and disapproval is currently 3 points, but it is still much lower than in the first months of the year, when in April disapproval was 9 points above approval.
The second-round simulation against the main challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, shows a clear technical tie, reinforcing the picture of worsening conditions and the negative tide. Even so, Lula remains numerically ahead in the poll.
However, there are a number of considerations to be made, and the most important is that there is high unpredictability in the outcome. Although theoretically Lula still maintains some favoritism over Flavinho Bolsonaro, factors such as the government machinery in the hands of the current president and more television time may influence the scenario.
