The director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned that the energy shock resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "has not yet ended" and that the development of artificial intelligence is increasing energy demand. These statements were made on Tuesday, September 1st, at the end of the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Asheville, North Carolina. Georgieva noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, that strategic oil and gas reserves will need to be replenished, and that winter is approaching in the northern hemisphere.
Georgieva stated that the global economy absorbed the energy shock "better than expected", contrasting it with the "increase in AI investment", which "boosted growth" in the US, South Korea, and other countries in the value chain, including electricity production projects to meet energy needs. However, she noted that there is a "significant divergence" between economic trajectories and that risks to global growth prospects, stabilized at around 3%, remain high.
Among the main risks listed, in addition to the continuation of the energy shock, the increase in public debt stands out, which, according to Georgieva, "exceeds the peaks recorded after World War II", approaching 100% of GDP worldwide. The official also stated that the disinflation process has stagnated in many countries, that growing fiscal pressures are driving up benchmark bond yields, and that the impact of AI on productivity and financial stability "is shrouded in uncertainties".
Georgieva emphasized that the priorities of economic policy "are clear" and urged central banks to focus on price stability and fiscal authorities to "agree on credible medium-term consolidation plans". She stressed that structural policies should focus on reducing bureaucracy and removing obstacles to growth, arguing that greater growth potential would help solve the fiscal problem and vice-versa.
