PS closer to making State Budget viable than Chega

The socialists do not guarantee abstention, but they have set conditions that leave room for negotiation with the Government. Chega has made lowering the retirement age a red line that clashes with Luís Montenegro's position. Five political scientists consulted by ECO consider a rejection of the 2027 State Budget unlikely and see the PS as the interlocutor with the greatest margin for an agreement.

Between PS and Chega, it is the party led by José Luís Carneiro that is currently closer to making the OE2027 proposal viable. Not because there is a political rapprochement between the socialists and the Government, but because the demands made by the PS leave more room for negotiation.

If the Budget is rejected, early elections are not the most likely scenario. In this case, monthly provisional budget allocations gain strength as an alternative to the approval of the document.