Markets started September under strong geopolitical pressure, after Wall Street's negative close on Monday, driven by the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran. The return of attacks between the two countries, after several weeks of relative calm, raised the risk premium on oil and reinforced concerns about navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The euro rose against the dollar, returning to the 1.16 dollar level, while 10-year Treasury yields rose to the 4.75%-4.76% zone, levels corresponding to highs of around 19 months. A mixed to slightly negative open is expected in European markets, with special attention to oil developments and US labor data.
Oil remained volatile and with an upward bias. On Monday, WTI advanced to the 85-86 dollar zone and Brent approached 90-91 dollars, following US attacks on Iranian launchers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian response. Analysts maintain forecasts of average prices above 80 dollars for 2026, supported by supply risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The US carried out its first recognized attack in several weeks against Iranian positions, hitting rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded with attacks on American bases in Jordan.
Within the G20 framework, the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors took place in Asheville, North Carolina, under the US presidency. The highlight goes to the presence of Russia's Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, in his first in-person participation at a G20 finance meeting since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Siluanov, with a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, supported by Washington, being discussed. Siluanov's presence generated protests from European officials, with the German vice-chancellor threatening to boycott the group's official photo.
In parallel, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit took place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where Russian President Vladimir Putin maintained an intense bilateral agenda. During a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the latter called for an end to the war in Ukraine, stating that every day the conflict drags on, humanity moves backward. Putin also met with Xi Jinping to discuss the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (first meeting since the start of the US-Iran conflict), and with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, among other leaders.
