The United States and Iran exchanged military attacks after a period of about a month of relative calm. This breakdown of the tacit truce represents a significant escalation in tensions between the two countries.
The central focus of the current conflict is control of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway of crucial importance for world oil trade. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime routes in the world, through which a large portion of global oil supply passes.
The breakdown of relative calm opens the way for two main scenarios. The first scenario points to the continuation of a pattern of limited and controlled attacks, similar to those that had characterized the period before the month of truce. The second scenario, more worrying, is that of a more intense military escalation between the two nations.
The exchanges of attacks occur in a context of deterioration of relations between Washington and Tehran, with both parties demonstrating willingness for direct military actions, marking a change from the period of restraint that had been observed in the previous weeks.
