Brussels validated Portugal's Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) on June 16, 2021, at a ceremony in Lisbon where the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, handed over the approved document to Prime Minister António Costa. Since then, the Commission has transferred €17.23 billion to Portugal, always subject to the fulfillment of the agreed milestones and targets. August 31, 2025 was the deadline for beneficiaries to fulfill their obligations to Brussels, in a plan that directed more than 50% of its resources to the public sector.
Several economists question whether the PRR managed to bring about a structural transformation of the Portuguese economy. Óscar Afonso, director of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto, acknowledges that the cyclical impact was "undeniably positive", sustaining investment, demand, employment and economic activity during a period of enormous uncertainty, but has "many doubts" that it structurally changed the economy. Ricardo Arroja considers it "exaggerated" to claim that the PRR structurally transformed the Portuguese economy, although it may have helped create future roots. Nelson Souza, former minister for Planning, stresses that structural transformation was "never on the table" because the PRR was created to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic and had "very specific" objectives.
The article also identifies that Portugal is the European country where public investment is most dependent on European funds, with 90% of public investment ensured by cohesion funds between 2014 and 2020, well above the community average of 14%. Nelson Souza criticizes the "excessive concentration of resources in the public sphere" and the excess fragmentation of social support, lamenting that it was not possible to carry out more focused actions with greater scale. Pedro Dominguinhos, president of the PRR National Monitoring Committee, points to failures in response capacity to target audiences, as happened in energy efficiency, where Portugal achieved less than one-third of the predicted vouchers. Fernando Alfaiate, president of the mission structure Recover Portugal, admits that "the Portuguese way, we left everything to the last day", creating pressure on the market and constraints on execution.
The real test for the PRR will begin when the extraordinary funding ends. Óscar Afonso warns that "spending is not reforming; investing is not, by itself, transforming", emphasizing that the legacy will depend on Portugal's capacity to generate wealth and productivity when it no longer has this extraordinary boost. The Public Finance Council estimates that investment will slow from 4.3% in 2026 to 1.1% in 2027 after the PRR ends. Ricardo Arroja argues that the structural impact will depend on whether or not the initiated projects are maintained, considering it would be a good sign if the concept of the Mobilizing Agendas, which combined public and private funding with collaboration between the scientific system and companies, were maintained.
