The 2026 electoral calendar emerged as the main obstacle for signing a definitive trade agreement between Brazil and the United States in the coming months. This assessment was the central consensus of the panel "Tariffs and Foreign Trade: Impacts, Challenges and Opportunities," promoted by the Brazilian Association of Logistics Professionals (ABPL) and Ouribank, with support from the Brazilian Consulate-General in Miami. Although negotiations have resumed and a recent phone call between Presidents Lula and Trump helped mitigate tensions, analysts indicate that heavier decisions should wait until 2027, after Brazil's October elections and the US midterm legislative elections in November.
Welber Barral, former secretary of Foreign Trade of Brazil, stated that Washington shows strong interest in areas such as critical minerals, digital markets and energy transition, agendas that require regulatory changes and eventual approval from the National Congress. Barral mentioned that Lula and Trump may meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Leonardo Capra, president of DRACO Freight Logistics, adopted a more conservative stance, noting that governments historically protect revenue generated by customs tariffs and use them as tools of trade and industrial policy.
Given this scenario of uncertainty, the director of Maersk for Latin America, Thiago Covre, defined the current moment as "the era of unpredictability," arguing that companies need to be ready to review suppliers, markets, logistics routes, costs and financing strategies. João Granato, member of the ABPL Board, used a sports metaphor to illustrate the global situation, warning that "teams need to get used to the new field, because there is no prospect of change in the next seven years."
The event, which celebrated ABPL's 10th anniversary, brought together government, corporate and Brazilian community leaders in South Florida. Ambassador Marco Farani highlighted that trade between the two nations reached $80.9 billion, with Florida concentrating $27.5 billion as Brazil's main state partner. During the meeting, Ouribank announced an expansion of up to 50% in financing terms for maritime and air freight, a measure expected to benefit approximately 120 companies associated with ABPL.
