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Libertadores: find out the chance of the semifinal being 100% BrazilianPhoto by tookapic on Pexels
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Libertadores: find out the chance of the semifinal being 100% Brazilian

extra15 September 2026 at 07:45

The Brazilian hegemony in the Libertadores can achieve an unprecedented feat in this 2026 edition. After dominating the competition in the last seven years, with 100% Brazilian finals in five of them, Brazil can now place all four semifinalists for the first time. After the first-leg matches of the quarterfinals, this possibility now has a 36.8% chance of occurring.

The calculation was made by the Mathematics Department of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) at the request of EXTRA. The analysis took into consideration not only the results of the first-leg matches, but also the average goals scored and conceded by each of the eight remaining teams in the competition.

The probability of a completely Brazilian semifinal is only not higher because of Corinthians' situation. The São Paulo club is the only Brazilian team that did not win last week, having drawn 1-1 with Estudiantes away. By playing in São Paulo in the return leg, Corinthians is the favorite in the most balanced quarterfinal matchup.

Why this matters

Brazilian football fans have a direct interest, as they can witness a historic moment if all four semifinalists are from Brazil. Corinthians, the only Brazilian team that did not win in the first leg, faces Estudiantes in São Paulo, where they are favorites, and can decide this possibility in the next round.

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