The crisis of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is reorganizing political emotions in Brazil, without necessarily transferring votes directly. The new Quaest poll was used as a basis to analyze how the electorate sees the moment, responding to four questions: how voters see the Master case; how they react to the conflict between ministers Alexandre de Moraes and André Mendonça; the impact on trust in the Court; and the effects on presidential voting intention.
The data indicate that the crisis deepens the wear and tear of the institution and fuels a sense of systemic crisis. Distrust in the STF rose ten points amid the crisis at the Court. Previous polls already showed Flavío Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a possible runoff for the first time since April.
However, despite the increase in distrust, the crisis does not create a clear electoral avenue for the government. What is observed is that, when the crisis takes on a defined face, it finds in the right and in Bolsonaroism the audience most willing to transform institutional wear and tear into reinforcement of their own political choice, strengthening existing positions rather than producing effective vote changes.
