The financial rating agency Fitch raised Portugal's rating to A+, matching the classification already assigned by Standard & Poor's. This upgrade was received as good news in financial markets, but the article's author argues that social solidarity and quality of life metrics are clearly secondary for these agencies, which prioritize fiscal discipline, debt sustainability, and the banking system's solvency.
Real estate prices in Portugal increased 99% between the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2026, almost doubling in six years. This growth exceeds the eurozone average by more than three times, which was about 31% in the same period. The price escalation was driven by supply scarcity, foreign and tourist demand, and the country's attractiveness for investment.
Fitch acknowledges that this appreciation has not yet created a bubble susceptible to bursting or causing immediate contagion to banking, as occurred in the 2008 crisis. The author attributes this risk containment to the credit granting rules imposed since 2018, including strict loan-to-value limits, debt-to-income limits, and reduced maximum loan terms based on the borrower's age.
The author concludes that the rating upgrade and the financial good news do not reflect the reality of the majority of the Portuguese population, especially young people and the middle class, who face serious housing affordability problems. While markets congratulate the macrofinancial performance, real wages have not kept pace with the rising prices, creating a gap between the economy praised by markets and the crisis experienced by families.
