It is September, a decisive month for TAP's future. The Parpública report has already been delivered and the Government's decision on the privatization of the Portuguese airline is imminent. The process has narrowed down to a duel between two European giants: Lufthansa and the Air France-KLM consortium. The IAG (owner of Iberia) was left out, leaving only these two candidates on the table with distinct visions for national aviation.
Lufthansa's main advantages include the fact that TAP already belongs to Star Alliance, which would facilitate the operational transition, its financial solidity and financing capacity, geographical complementarity (it does not dominate South America and could invest in the Lisbon hub for South Atlantic routes), and experience in managing multiple airlines. As negatives, the German management prefers to have expanded shareholder control, which may conflict with the initial model of a 44.9% minority disposal defined by the State, and there is a risk of excessive centralization of decisions in Frankfurt and Munich.
The Air France-KLM consortium offers as an advantage the valorization of the Lisbon hub, since its airports in Paris and Amsterdam are congested, which would give Portugal priority as an Atlantic platform for Brazil, Portuguese-speaking Africa, and North America, in addition to potentially opening doors to a strategic partnership with Delta Airlines. The cons include the need for TAP to leave Star Alliance to join SkyTeam, a lengthy and expensive process, and a financial structure historically more exposed with more limited margins and investment capacity.
The article concludes that the choice should not be based solely on the financial value per share, but rather on the contractual guarantees the Government can obtain to protect the Lisbon hub, strategic routes to Portuguese-speaking regions, and national employment, preventing TAP from being reduced to a mere feeder of traffic for other European airports.
