The Portuguese Government, led by Luís Montenegro (PSD/CDS-PP), forecasts that the economic measures already adopted will have an impact of 4,783 million euros on the 2027 public accounts, according to the "2027 Invariant Policies Framework" delivered to the Assembly of the Republic. This document, which must be submitted during the preparation phase of the State Budget for 2027, presents a picture of the impact of already known measures, without accounting for new policies that may alter the final result.
On the expenditure side, the executive anticipates negative impacts of 5,042 million euros, with special emphasis on the pension increase, which should cost 1,993 million euros (of which 824 million related to the regular pension update), and on the growth in personnel expenditure, estimated at 1,231 million euros. The reinforcement of the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly represents an additional 100 million euros in expenditure.
Conversely, the revenue side should generate a positive balance of 259 million euros. Among the measures that reduce revenue are the reduction of the IRC rate from 19% to 18% (300 million euros), the update of IRS deductions and brackets (401 million) and the measures of the housing program, including the reduction of IRS for landlords (209 million) and VAT on construction (94 million). However, the State should benefit from 471 million euros in social contributions and 668 million euros in IRS resulting from the increase in wages and pensions.
