The government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva presented on Monday the 2027 budget bill (PLOA). The proposal forecasts an "effective" surplus of R$ 18.6 billion next year, which, if confirmed, will be the first positive result since 2022.
The projection represents an effective surplus of the accounts because it considers all expenses, even those discounted for the purpose of calculating the target, such as part of the precatórios (court-ordered debts). The fiscal framework aims for a surplus of 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), equivalent to R$ 73.2 billion.
The fiscal rule has a tolerance margin, meaning it is considered met if the result is a surplus between 0.25% and 0.75% of GDP. When all expenses are taken into account, the forecasted result falls short of the target.