Analysts consider that the new oil agreement between the United States and Venezuela, announced by President Donald Trump on August 28, aims to limit China's presence in the Venezuelan energy sector. Alejandro Kirk, a journalist and political analyst based in Venezuela, described the understanding as a barrier against Chinese, Russian, and Iranian participation in the sector, framing it within the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing. According to Kirk, Washington seeks to consolidate its influence in Latin America in anticipation of a potential intensification of competition with China.
Under the terms of the agreement, a US-backed private company is expected to hold a 55% stake in the production of 17 oil blocks, with exploration rights for 100 years. The US control will cover over 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves. Private investment is expected to mobilize nearly 100 billion dollars, generating more than 209 billion dollars in additional tax revenues for Venezuela.
China, which was the largest individual buyer of Venezuelan oil, has not received any shipments since December 2025, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea. In August, approximately 520,000 barrels per day were sent to the United States, nearly half of the 1.1 million barrels daily exported by Venezuela. China's exclusion also has financial implications, with estimates placing between 10 billion and 15 billion dollars the amount still owed by Venezuela to China, much of which was to be repaid through oil supplies.
Rachel Ziemba, senior advisor at consulting firm Horizon Engage, anticipated that Chinese partners in joint ventures will be encouraged to reduce their role and be replaced by other participants. Despite the strategic importance of Venezuela for Beijing, the impact on China's global energy supply should remain limited, as Venezuelan oil represented only a small fraction of China's total imports. The new agreement comes at a time when Chinese imports of Iranian crude also fell from 823,000 barrels per day in July to 534,000 in August, following the strengthening of US sanctions.
