The Portuguese economy grew 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to confirmed data from the National Statistics Institute. Growth was driven by export performance, which compensated for the investment slowdown. The contribution of net external demand was considered "decisive" for quarterly evolution, with the external deficit falling one percentage point of GDP.
Economists, however, warn of worrying signs in investment evolution. After a surge of 10.4% in the first quarter, driven by Nvidia chips for the data center in Sines, investment slowed to just 5.7% in the second quarter. João Duque, professor at ISEG, stated that investment figures "are not good signs" in the context of PRR execution, whose deadline ended on Monday. António Nogueira Leite, from Nova SBE, considered that "the slowdown signal was clear" and that "in such an uncertain environment, you need to save your last ammunition".
Experts consider the Government's 2% growth target for 2026 achievable, albeit with reservations. Nogueira Leite stated that "the Portuguese economy ultimately shows it has solid growth this year", but warned that it is necessary to "look very carefully at investment evolution in the coming months". João Duque recalled that such growth had not been seen for two consecutive quarters since 2023, but questioned: "If this is with the PRR, if we remove it, then it's worrying".
In the second quarter, final household consumption expenditure grew 3.7% year-on-year, with notable acceleration in durable goods from 6.3% to 9.3%. Inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August due to fuel prices, and INE also reported that the revision of the Portuguese population to 1.4 million inhabitants may impact the nominal value of GDP, with the reassessment work expected to be completed in March 2027.
