The price of bread should rise from October in Portugal, according to ACIP — the Bakery Trade and Industry Association. President Débora Barbosa stated that the costs of raw materials, such as bread-making wheat and yeasts, have increased on average 10% since June, and that these increases have not yet been fully reflected in the final consumer. International wheat prices reached their highest level since 2023 in Chicago, with a rise of about 37% since June, driven by the Black Sea crisis.
Portugal is particularly exposed to these increases because it produces only about 20% of the cereals it consumes and only 5% of the wheat needed. The external dependence of approximately 80% means that any disruption in international markets directly affects the country. National storage capacity is limited to about 15 days to three weeks of needs, which leaves little room for maneuver. The expansion of Alqueva irrigation led many farmers to switch from cereals to more profitable crops such as olive groves and almond orchards.
Other products are also expected to be affected. Pasta, biscuits and pastries use wheat directly, while beer depends on barley, of which Portugal produces only 17% of national needs. Meat, milk and eggs may be affected indirectly, through the increased cost of animal feed based on corn, barley and wheat. The war in the Black Sea, which hindered Ukrainian exports, and the drought in France, which may produce only 6.9 million tonnes of corn in 2026, are creating pressure on European markets.
The +CEREAIS strategy, coordinated by GPP, aims to increase the national self-sufficiency rate of cereals to 38% in five years. José Palha, president of ANPOC, recalls that Portuguese dependence has historical roots and that domestic production faces increasing costs of fuel, energy and fertilizers. Economists cited by Reuters indicate that price shocks can take three to six months to reach final consumer prices, which explains the delay between movements in international markets and increases on supermarket shelves.
